EURO AT CROSSROAD–DROPS OR POPS?

By Fernando Luna

Weekly the down trend persists! It is testing the 38.2% channel trend line support.  The pair has been trying to bounce off of it for the last month.  This week we tested again hitting a low at 1.08791. 

The only thing bullish is the test of Fib support.  And a drop below this golden ratio and weekly close would be bearish as hell.   Not that it already isn’t.  The down trend is strong! DMI is ticking bearish while the ADX is at 26—Wilder is all in! 

Down at the Daily ADX is screaming at 39.  Now its been hirer but this is high.  Its might be a good time to look for a turn around.  Still, I wouldn’t commit to much.  The long term pressure is still on lest not forget. 

Resistance is up at the swing highs.  Support down at the Fib trend line and the Fib 127.2 and 161.8 Fib retracements.

Below is a 20 min chart. There is a posible impulse forming up from today’s 1.08791 low!

But from the channel in the five minute chart below has been breached. Now this could still linger sideways and pop as long as the Blue-4 stays above Blu-1. But it does look bleak. I don’t like it when this happens. The longer this contracts the more the probabilities turn to the downside.

Real quick update this Wednesday morning 6.45 AM Lima Peru. EURUSD fell below the 14.0879 support invalidating the impulsive series up. The move retraced to the 61.8% XvsW and bounced possibly leaving behind a completed X wave. I have put in the channel to get a potential targets. But remember that this channel isn’t confirmed until the pair makes it above the 1.0943 W high.

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