US OIL COMPLETING BEARISH TRIANGLE BREAK

By Fernando Luna

Below is US oil monthly chart. As you can see price has been on a down trend since the 146.73 2008 high.  The Channel I am using is taken from the 2009 and 2016 lows and run off both the 107.67 and 146.73 highs.   A classic Elliott Wave double zigzag channel would be running at more negative slope then the one I am using.  If price drops below the lower channel trend line, I will use the EW one. 

As of now a barrel is going for 53.78 which has many worried as price continues to slide. 

From the weekly below you can see a very sharp impulsive like move running down from the 2018 high to the Dec 2018 low.  From there oil retraced almost to the 78.6% of said impulsive.  The move looked promising but failed and is now trading just above the 38.2% BvsA leaving behind a very corrective-like pattern. 

Down at the Daily chart you can see that I am expecting a drop down to possibly the low 40s for Minor Degree Y.   However, given the move down from the 66.62 to the 50.61 Minor-W low and then the three wave move up to the 63.38 where Minor-X capped off.  Well the channel and the 100% YvsW is down at the 48.17 oversold zone or also called the 10% buy zone.  If price drops through this, then I will look for the 42 2018 low to support.  Below that and shit!  Countries are already crying at this price.   

In the 90-minute chart below the count down from the 63.38 Sept high counts a nice five at the 51.00 Oct 3rd low.  From there we got a triangle as it stands now with its break favoring the downside.   Time is ripe for this triangle has taken just past 100% of what it took for the drop from the 63.38 Sept high.  Keep in mind that there is still the possibility, although small at this point, that this corrective expands out to a larger one. 

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